10 Million Ballots, Wrong Winner: The 1936 Poll Disaster #Shorts
Pack: 44 - 10 Million Ballots, Wrong Winner The 1936 Poll Disaster
In 1936 the Literary Digest mailed about ten million straw ballots and predicted Alf Landon would beat Franklin Roosevelt. A young pollster, George Gallup, used a far smaller sample, predicted Roosevelt, and even forecast the Digest's result in advance. The story in period photographs and the Digest's own headline.
- About 10 million ballots went out; almost 2.4 million came back (Lohr & Brick, 2017; Squire, 1988).
- The lists leaned on telephone and automobile owners, which over-represented the better-off in the Depression (Squire, 1988; Lohr & Brick, 2017).
- The Digest's final headline: "Landon, 1,293,669; Roosevelt, 972,897," with a projected 370 electoral votes for Landon (Literary Digest, October 31, 1936, via Lohr & Brick).
- Gallup predicted Roosevelt and said in advance that the Digest would show Landon ahead (PBS, The First Measured Century; Gallup).
- Roosevelt won 523 electoral votes to 8, carrying every state but Maine and Vermont (National Archives). Within two years the Digest was gone.
Bigger sample or better sample: which would you trust? Tell us in the comments. Full story in our documentary, The Full History of Voting in America.
Quick answers
What is “10 Million Ballots, Wrong Winner: The 1936 Poll Disaster” about?
In 1936 the Literary Digest mailed about ten million straw ballots and predicted Alf Landon would beat Franklin Roosevelt. A young pollster, George Gallup, used a far smaller sample, predicted Roosevelt, and even forecast the Digest's result in advance. The story in period photographs and the Digest's own headline.
What are the key facts?
About 10 million ballots went out; almost 2.4 million came back (Lohr & Brick, 2017; Squire, 1988). The lists leaned on telephone and automobile owners, which over-represented the better-off in the Depression (Squire, 1988; Lohr & Brick, 2017).
What sources is this Short based on?
It cites Lohr & Brick, "Roosevelt Predicted to Win: Revisiting the 1936 Literary Digest Poll," Statistics, Politics and Policy (2017); Squire, "Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed," Public Opinion Quarterly (1988); PBS, The First Measured Century, interview with David W. Moore; Gallup, on its first poll (polling-matters article); and 1 more. Links are in the Sources list below.
Sources
- Lohr & Brick, "Roosevelt Predicted to Win: Revisiting the 1936 Literary Digest Poll," Statistics, Politics and Policy (2017)
- Squire, "Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed," Public Opinion Quarterly (1988)
- PBS, The First Measured Century, interview with David W. Moore
- Gallup, on its first poll (polling-matters article)
- National Archives, 1936 Electoral College results
Images
- The Literary Digest, cover, January 5, 1924 — The Literary Digest — Public domain —
- Alf Landon, about 1936, Library of Congress cph.3c06389 — unknown photographer — Public domain —
- FDR fireside chat, September 6, 1936, Library of Congress LC-DIG-hec-47251 — Harris & Ewing — Public domain —
- Eleanor Roosevelt votes at Hyde Park, New York, November 3, 1936 — FDR Presidential Library & Museum — CC BY 2.0 —
- Governor Landon at the White House, December 21, 1936, Library of Congress 2016871007 — Harris & Ewing — Public domain — https://www.loc.gov/pictures/item/2016871007/ (Commons copy LCCN2016871007)
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